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Research

​​​A major objective of the Institute is to promote research and other academic activities in financial, banking and international economics . Gaining increasing recognition (the Institute is a founding member of the Forum for Euro-Med. Economics Institutes-FEMISE headquartered in Marseilles, France),  it aims to become a major research center in these areas in particular as concerns the Middle East and the North Africa region.  Emphasis is placed on policy-oriented empirical work that could be beneficial to governments and organizations concerned with the design of economic financial and monetary policies.  Towards this objective it also holds seminar, workshops and lectures that, among other things, bring together academicians, financial managers and experts, and policy makers to analyze issues of relevance at the policy level.


The Institute encourages collaborative work with appropriate national, regional and international organizations, and research center.  It also accommodates visiting scholars and experts for various intervals of time to conduct research at the institute.

In 2003, the institute initiated a guest lecture and working paper series.  The lectures are by invited scholars and experts and except for minor editorial changes, are circulated as presented.  The working papers incorporate preliminary findings of ongoing research work being undertaken at the Institute and elsewhere.  To access this series of publications , click here.

On Going Research

  • Testing for Financial Bubbles: Evidence from the MENA Region. Institute of Financial Economics Research Project. (S. Neaime, / S. Altug).
  • Monetary Policy Transmission under Financial Dollarization: A Structural VAR Analysis of Exchange Rate Regimes, Balance-Sheet Effects, and Global Financial Cycles. (S. Neaime)
  • Exchange Rate Shocks and Macroeconomic Adjustment in Small Open Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Policy Implications. (S. Neaime)
  • Geopolitical Uncertainty, Financial Resilience and Economic Growth in MENA: Evidence from a Panel VAR Model. (S. Neaime)
  • Term of Trade adjustment and Exchange Rate Regime in Oil Exporting Countries. (S. Neaime, / N. Badra)
  • Sudden Stops and Fiscal Adjustments: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Model. (S. Neaime, / N. Badra)
  • Investment under Stormy Skies: The Case of Russian Firms during 2004-2016,” CEPR DP 16646 (under review), (2025). [ S. Altug, and Y., Sevcan (2025)].
  • Artificial Intelligence and the Macroeconomy, World Scientific Publishers, forthcoming in (2027). [S. Altug; N. Yamout, and A. Zalghout​].


​Published Journal Articles​

  1. MENA Stock Markets Decoupling: Winners and Losers from the Wars in Ukraine and Middle East, Vol. 82, 2026, Research in International Business and Finance (Impact Factor: 6.9, Scopus CiteScore 11.9, Quartile: 1). [S. Hakim and S. Neaime]
  2. Financial Inclusion, Integration, and Stability Asymmetries in the Mediterranean Region, Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Vol. 30, pp.1-15, 2024 (Impact Factor: 3.2, Scopus CiteScore 7.4, Quartile: 1). [S. Neaime, and I. Gaysset]
  3. Fiscal Asymmetries and Debt Crises: Evidence from Lebanon Using a Sign Restricted Structural VAR Model, Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Vol. 28, pp.1-12, 2023 (Impact Factor: 3.2, Scopus CiteScore 7.4, Quartile: 1). [S. Neaime, N. Badra, & I. Gaysset]
  4. Macroeconomic and Mon​etary Policy Responses in Selected Highly Indebted MENA countries Post Covid 19: A Structural VAR Approach, Research in International Business and Finance, 61, 1–16, 2022. (Impact Factor: 6.9, Scopus CiteScore 11.9, Quartile: 1). [S. Neaime, and I. Gaysset]
  5. Twin Deficits and Fiscal Spillovers in the EMU's Periphery: A Keynesian Perspective, Economic Modelling, 76, 101-116, 2019. (Impact Factor: 4.7, Scopus CiteScore 8.7, Quartile: 1). [I. Gaysset, T. Segot, and S. Neaime]
  6. The Eurozone Debt Crisis: A Structural VAR Approach, Research in International Business and Finance, 43, 22–33, 2018 (Impact Factor: 6.9, Scopus CiteScore 10.7, Quartile: 1). [S. Neaime, I. Gaysset, and N. Badra]
  7. Financial Inclusion and Stability in MENA: Evidence from Poverty and Inequality, Finance Research Letters, 24, 230-237, 2018 (Impact Factor: 7.4, Scopus CiteScore 10.7, Quartile: 1). [S. Neaime and I. Gaysset]​
  8. Sustainability of Macroeconomic Policies in Selected MENA Countries: Post Financial and Debt Crises, Research in International Business and Finance, 40, pp. 129–140, 2017. ((Impact Factor: 6.9, Scopus CiteScore 11.9, Quartile: 1). [S. Neaime and I. Gaysset]​
  9. Financial Crises and Contagion Vulnerability of MENA Stock Markets, Emerging Markets Review, 27, pp, 14-35, 2016 (Impact Factor: 4.6, Scopus CiteScore 8.8, Quartile: 1). [S. Neaime]
  10. Are MENA Stock Markets Mean Reverting? A Monte Carlo Simulation, Finance Research Letters, Vol., 13, pp. 74–80, 2015 (Impact Factor: 7.4, Scopus CiteScore 10.7, Quartile: 1). [S. Neaime]
  11. Sustainability of Budget Deficits and Public Debts in Selected European Union Countries, Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Vol.12, pp.1-21, 2015 (Impact Factor 3.2, Scopus CiteScore 7.4, Quartile: 1). [S. Neaime]
  12. Twin deficits and the Sustainability of Public Debt and Exchange Rate Policies in Lebanon, Research in International Business and Finance, Vol. 33, pp. 127–143, 2015. (Impact Factor: 6.9, Scopus CiteScore 11.9, Quartile: 1). [S. Neaime]
  13. The Demand Elasticity of Mobile Telephones in the Middle East and North Africa, Research in International Business and Finance, Vol. 32, pp. 1-14, August 2014. (Impact Factor: 6.9, Scopus CiteScore 11.9, Quartile: 1). [S. Hakim, and S. Neaime]
  14. Foreign Shocks and International Cost of Equity Destabilization: Evidence from the MENA region, Emerging Markets Review, Vol. 18, pp. 101–122, March 2014 (Impact Factor: 4.6, Scopus CiteScore: 8.8, Quartile: 1). A. [Guyot, T. L.-Segot, and S. Neaime]
  15. Foreign Currency Borrowing by Small Firms in Emerging Markets: When Domestic Banks Intermediate Dollars, Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol. 37 (3), pp. 1093-1107, March 2013. (Impact Factor: 4.0, Scopus CiteScore: 7.0, Quartile: 1). [N. Mora, S. Neaime, and S. Aintablian]
  16. The Global Financial Crisis, Financial Linkages and Correlations in Returns and Volatilities in Emerging MENA Stock Markets, Emerging Markets Review, Vol. 13 (2), pp. 268-282, September 2012. (Impact Factor: 4.6, Scopus CiteScore 8.8, Quartile: 1). [S. Neaime]
  17. Volatilities in Emerging MENA Stock Markets. A Lead Journal Article in the Thunderbird International Business Review, Vol. 48, No. 4, pp. 455-484, July 2006 (Impact Factor: 2.9, Scopus CiteScore: 5.4, Quartile: 1). [S. Neaime]
  18. Income Convergence in the Asia-Pacific Region, Journal of Economic Integration, Vol. 19, No. 3, pp. 470-498, September 2004 (Impact Factor: 1.2, Scopus CiteScore: 2.1, Quartile: 2). Paper nominated for a prize for best paper of the year. [L. Michelis and S. Neaime]
  19. Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Asymmetries in Selected East Mediterranean and Gulf Countries: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Vol. 1, No. 2, pp.143-172, December 2004 (Impact Factor: 3.2, Scopus CiteScore 7.4, Quartile: 1). [S. Neaime]
  20. Durable Goods, Habits, Time Preference, and Exchange Rates, North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Vol. 14, No. 1, pp. 115-130, March 2003. (Impact Factor: 3.0, Scopus CiteScore: 7.9, Quartile: 1). [A. Mansoorian and S. Neaime]
  21. Mean-Reversion Across MENA Stock Markets: Implications for Derivative Pricing. International Journal of Business, Vol. 8 No. 3, pp. 348-358, September 2003, (Scopus CiteScore: 0.9).  [S. Hakim and S. Neaime]
  22. Implications of the Introduction of the Euro for the Mediterranean Countries, Thunderbird International Business Review, Vol. 45, No.1, pp. 31-49, January 2003 (Impact Factor: 2.9, Scopus CiteScore: 5.4, Quartile: 1). [N. Colton and S. Neaime]
  23. Habits and Durability in Consumption and the Effects of Exchange Rate Policies, International Economic Journal, Vol. 16, No. 2, pp. 97-114, 2002 (Impact Factor: 0.96, Scopus CiteScore: 2.0, Quartile: 2). [A. Mansoorian and S. Neaime]
  24. The Future of the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate, North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Vol. 13, No. 1, pp. 57-72, May 2002. (Impact Factor: 3.0, Scopus CiteScore: 7.9, Quartile: 1). [S. Neaime and J. Paschakis]
  25. Habits and Durability in Consumption and the Effects of Tariff Protection, Open Economies Review, Vol. 11, No.3, pp. 195-204, July 2000. (Impact Factor: 1.0, Scopus CiteScore: 3.0, Quartile: 2). [A. Mansoorian and S. Neaime]​​​​​
  26. The Interaction of Real and Financial Markets in the Global Economy: What Role Does China Play?” In D. Nguyen and S. Boubaker (eds.), Handbook of Global Financial Markets: Transformations, Dependence, and Risk Spill-overs, World Scientific, (2019) Chapter 20, pp. 513–530. [S. Altug, C. Çakmaklı and R. İzgi Gözen]
  27. Ambiguous Business Cycles: A Quantitative Assessment.” Review of Economic Dynamics, 38, 220–237, (2010). [S. Altug, F. Collard, C. Çakmaklı, S. Mukerji and H.Özsöylev]
  28. Modelling of Economic and Financial Conditions for Real-Time Prediction of Recessions: A Unified Approach.” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, (2021), 83(3), 663–685, (2021). [C. Çakmaklı, H. Demircan and S. Altug]
  29. “Growth Spillovers for the MENA Region: Geography, Institutions or Trade?” The Developing Economies, 59(3), 275–305, (2021). [M. Baysoy, M. Aksoylar and S. Altug].
  30. The COVID-19 Shock: A Bayesian Analysis.” Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 14(10), Article 495, 2021. [O. Abi Younes and S. Altug].
  31. A Twitter-based Economic Policy Uncertainty Index: Expert Opinion and Financial Market Dynamics in an Emerging Market Economy.” Frontiers in Physics: Social Physics, 10, Article 864207, (2022). [Y. Sevcan, Y. Anıl Şen, B. Arslan and S. Altug].
  32. “From Tweets to Markets: Lebanon’s Policy Uncertainty and Volatility Spillovers in MENA Stock Markets.” Borsa Istanbul Review, 25(4), 5 May 2025. [S. Altug, M. Barakat, L. Dagher and E. Uluceviz].​


Other Refereed Journal Articles, Chapters in Books, and Conference Proceedings​​

  1. MENA Stock Markets Decoupling: Winners and Losers from the Wars in Ukraine and Middle East, Proceedings of the Economic Research Forum (ERF) 31st Annual Conference, April 27-29, 2025.  The p​aper received the Best Policy-Oriented Paper Award. [Hakim S., and Neaime S.]
  2. Financial Integration, Stability, and Spillovers in the Euro-MENA Region: Implications for Enhanced MENA Financial Markets, FEMISE and IEMED, Barcelona, Spain, 2024, pp. 1-28. [S. Neaime and I. Gaysset]

  3. Lebanon's Perfect Storm," in Elgar Encyclopedia of Financial Crises," S. Hsu Ed., Edward Elgar Publishing Limited, Massachusetts, USA, 2023, pp. 232-235. [S. Neaime and I. Gaysset]

  4. Egypt's Currency and Financial Crisis," in Elgar Encyclopedia of Financial Crises," S. Hsu Ed., Edward Elgar Publishing Limited, Massachusetts, 2023, USA, pp. 118-120. [S. Neaime and I. Gaysset, “]

  5. Implications of the Recent Financial and Health Crises on Institutions of Higher Education in Arab Countries: Revisiting Existing Financial Models," in Higher Education in the Arab world in the Post Covid 19 Era, pp. 173-194, Springer, 2022. [S. Neaime and J. Saghir]

  6. Runaway Public Debt in Mediterranean Countries: Is it Manageable?" European Institute for the Mediterranean, 13th Edition's Yearbook, pp. 112-118, 2021. [S. Neaime and I. Gaysset]​​

  7. The Effects of European Austerity Measures on the South and East Mediterranean Countries," the European Institute for the Mediterranean, 12th Edition's Yearbook, pp. 257-262, 2015. [S. Neaime]

  8. The Global Financial Crisis and the Euro Mediterranean Partnership," in Europe and the Mediterranean Economy, Joan Costa-Font ED. Routledge, pp. 116-131, June 2012. [S. Neaime]

  9. Inflation Targeting in 6 MENA Countries," in Inflation Targeting, in MENA Countries, an Unfinished Journey, Mongi Boughzala Ed., Palgrave, pp. 100-132, August 2011. [S. Neaime]

  10. Testing the Expectations Hypothesis in the Emerging Markets of the Middle East: An Application to the Egyptian and Lebanese Treasury Securities," in Financial Econometrics Modelling: Derivative Pricing, Hedge Funds and Term Structure Models, G. Gregoriou and R. Pascalau (Eds), pp.186-200, January 2010.  [S. Hakim and S. Neaime]

  11. Sustainability of MENA Public Debt and the Macroeconomic Implications of the US Financial Crisis," Middle East Development Journal, Vol. 2, pp. 177-201, December 2010. [S. Neaime]
  12. Sustainability of Exchange Rate Policies and External Public Debt in the MENA Region," Journal of Economics and International Finance, Vol. 1, No. 2, pp. 59-71, July 2009. [S. Neaime]

  13. Recent Assessments on the Integration of Stock Markets in the MENA Region," in Stock Market Volatility, Greg N. Gregoriou (Editor), pp. 557-570, April 2009.  [S. Hakim and S. Neaime]

  14. Financial Governance, ARAB Financial Markets and the Basel II Accord," Arab Economic Journal, Vol. 14, No. 39, pp. 3-16, Summer 2007. [S. Neaime]
  15. Portfolio Management and Financial Market Integration of Emerging MENA Stock Markets," In Global Stock Markets and Portfolio Management, Vol. 4, pp. 37-54, January 2006. [S. Neaime]
  16. Monetary Policy Coordination and the Prospects of a Monetary Union Between GCC Countries," A Lead Journal Article in Economie Appliquée, Archives de L'institut de Sciences Mathématiques et Economiques Appliquées, Paris, France, Vol. LIX, No. 4, pp. 5-32, December 2006. [S. Neaime]​
  17. Sustainability of Exchange Rate Policies and External Public Debt in Lebanon," Journal of Development and Economic Policies, Arab Planning Institute, Kuwait, Vol. 8, No. 1, pp. 53-84, December 2005. [S. Neaime]
  18. Portfolio Diversification and Financial Integration of MENA Stock Markets," in Money and Finance in the Middle East: Missed Opportunities or Future Prospects? S. Neaime and N. Colton Eds., Vol. 6, pp. 3-21, June 2005. [S. Neaime]
  19. Profitability and Risk Management in Banking: A Comparative Analysis of Egypt and Lebanon," in Money and Finance in the Middle East: Missed Opportunities or Future Prospects? S. Neaime and N. Colton Eds., Vol. 6, pp. 121-136, June 2005. [S. Hakim and S. Neaime]
  20. Fiscal, Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies in a Small Open Economy, in Money and Finance in the Middle East: Missed Opportunities or Future Prospects? S. Neaime and N. Colton Eds., Vol. 6, pp. 121-136, June 2005. [S. Neaime]
  21. Financial Market Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility in the MENA Region: An Empirical Investigation," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, Vol. 3 No. 3, pp. 231-253, December, 2005. [S. Neaime]
  22. Sustainability of Budget Deficits and Public Debt in Lebanon: A Stationarity and Cointegration Analysis," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, Vol. 2, No.1, pp. 43-61, April 2004. [S. Neaime]
  23. The Euro and the Future EU-Arab Countries Trade Relations," Arab Economic Journal, Vol. 11, No.29, pp. 27-49, Autumn 2002. [S. Neaime]
  24. Price Linkages and Integration of MENA Stock Markets," International Review of Comparative Public Policy, Vol. 13, pp. 63-86, May 2002. [S. Neaime and S. Hakim]​
  25. European Monetary Union and the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate," in Asymmetries in Financial Globalization, Bala Batavia, Nicholas A. Lash and A. G. Malliaris Eds., Toronto, Canada: APF Press, 2002, pp. 103-124. [S. Neaime, C.C. Paraskevopoulos and J. Paschakis, ]
  26. The Arab Economies: Monetary and Financial Implications of the Euro-Currency," Arab Economic Journal, Vol. 10, No. 24, pp. 3-28, Summer 2001. . [S. Neaime]
  27. The Role of Foreign Direct Investment for Economic Development in the MENA Region," Topics in Middle Eastern and North African Economies, Volume 11, 2009. Proceedings of the Middle East Economic Association.  [S. Neaime and M. Marktanner]
  28. Sustainability and Dynamics of MENA Public Debt and the Macroeconomic Implications of Public Insolvency," Proceedings of the Economic Research Forum (ERF) 13th Annual Conference, December 15-18, 2006.  The paper received the Best Policy-Oriented Paper Award. The Award consists of an honorarium of $3000 ($2000 for presented papers, and $1000 for the Award) and a Certificate.  [S. Neaime]
  29. A Unified Risk Assessment of Commercial Banks in the MENA Region," Proceedings of the Economic Research Forum (ERF) 12th Annual Conference, Cairo-Egypt, December 19-21, 2005.  The paper received an honorarium of $2000 awarded for presented papers. [S. Hakim and S. Neaime]
  30. A Model for Evaluating the Failure of Lebanese Banks," in Regional Trade, Finance and Labor Markets, Proceedings of The Economic Research Forum (ERF) 6th Annual Conference, pp. 308-324, October 1999. The paper received an honorarium of $2000 awarded for presented papers. [S. Hakim and S. Neaime]
  31. Using the Yield Curve to Predict Inflation in the Emerging Economies of the ERF," in Regional Trade, Finance and Labor Markets. Proceedings of the Economic Research Forum (ERF) 5th Annual Conference, pp. 141-151, September 1998.  The paper received an honorarium of $2000 awarded for presented papers. [S. Andary, S., Hakim, and S. Neaime]
  32. The Euro and the Arab Region: Eight Years After its Introduction," Union of Arab Banks, pp. 129-134, June 2006. [S. Neaime]
  33. Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies in the MENA Region," Arab Bank Review, Vol.6, No.1, pp. 33-38, April 2004. [S. Neaime]
  34. Moving Ahead from Doha to Cancun: The Formulation of the Lebanese Negotiating Position." Proceedings of the Expert Group Meeting. The Center of Economic and Financial Research and Studies and Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Cairo, Egypt, October 2003. [S. Neaime]​​

AUB IFE Research Reports and Textbooks​

  1. Lebanon's Economic and Financial Crises: Implications on the American University of Beirut, An IFE Research Report Submitted to AUB's President and Board of Trustees by the AUB's Council of Economic Advisors, January 2021, pp. 1-104. [S. Neaime, Jamal Saghir, and Ibrahim Jamali]​

  2. Developed and Developing Countries Inflation Trends and Insights: Implications on Lebanon's Economy. An IFE Research Report presented to the AUB's Provost and President, June 2023, pp.1-15. [S. Neaime and I. Gaysset]

  3. Money and Finance in the Middle East: Missed Opportunities or Future Prospects? Research in Middle East Economics, Amsterdam and Oxford: Elsevier, Vol. 6, pp. 1-249, June 2005. [S. Neaime and N. Colton (Editors)]

  4. The Macroeconomics of Exchange Rate Policies, Tariff Protection and the Current Account: A Dynamic Framework, APF Press, Toronto, Canada, July 2000. ​Excerpts from the book reviews are available on the back of the book, and the review of the Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) Vol. 39 No. 3, 2001 reads as follows: “A graduate level textbook introduces students to the main theoretical and applied models used by monetary and international financial economists and presents the relevant empirical evidence. Discusses globalization, tariffs, and the current account; exchange rate policies; neo-classical growth and optimal control; endogenous growth; and real exchange rates; productivity shocks, and sectoral adjustment of output. Considers policy implications." [S. Neaime]​

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